Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured another presidential term after defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in the October 25, 2026, runoff election. The result could have important implications for India’s economic and diplomatic relationship with Latin America’s largest economy, particularly in trade, BRICS cooperation and the growing influence of the Global South.
For New Delhi, Lula’s victory offers continuity in a partnership that has expanded across energy, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, technology, critical minerals and international diplomacy. Both India and Brazil have called for greater representation of developing economies in global institutions and have supported closer cooperation among emerging economies.
However, the election result does not automatically guarantee new trade agreements or a closer position on every international issue. The real test will be whether both governments can convert their political relationship into measurable economic benefits.
India and Brazil have already set ambitious trade goals. Bilateral trade reached approximately $15.21 billion in 2025, according to figures cited in recent reporting, while both countries have discussed raising trade to $30 billion by 2030.
Lula’s new term gives the two governments an opportunity to build on that foundation. Their progress will depend on market access, investment, trade negotiations and the implementation of existing agreements.
Key Highlights
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff on October 25, 2026.
- India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Lula and expressed interest in deepening the India-Brazil Strategic Partnership.
- India-Brazil bilateral trade reached approximately $15.21 billion in 2025.
- The two countries have discussed expanding bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2030.
- Both countries support stronger cooperation within BRICS and greater representation for developing economies.
- Potential areas of cooperation include pharmaceuticals, energy, agriculture, technology and critical minerals.
- Lula has advocated exploring trade settlements in national currencies, although practical implementation would require financial and commercial arrangements.
Lula Wins Another Term in Brazil: What Happened?
Brazil’s presidential election concluded with Lula defeating opposition candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the October 25 runoff.
The result gives Lula another term to pursue his domestic and international priorities. His approach to foreign policy has emphasised multilateral cooperation, engagement with developing economies and a greater role for countries outside traditional centres of global power.
For India, the result matters because Lula has consistently supported stronger relations with New Delhi and closer cooperation among major emerging economies.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Lula on his victory on October 26, 2026. Modi said he looked forward to working with the Brazilian president to deepen and expand the India-Brazil Strategic Partnership and advance shared priorities of the Global South.
The congratulatory message reaffirmed India’s intention to maintain close engagement with Brazil. It did not, however, announce a new trade agreement or a change to existing bilateral commitments.
The election result therefore provides political continuity for the relationship, while the next phase will depend on concrete decisions by both governments.
Why Lula’s Victory Matters for India
India and Brazil are major developing economies with interests spanning trade, energy, food security, technology and international governance.
Their partnership has become more relevant as countries seek to diversify supply chains, secure critical resources and reduce excessive dependence on a limited number of trading partners.
Lula’s return creates an opportunity to advance cooperation in several areas.
1. Continuity in bilateral relations
India and Brazil already have a strategic partnership covering economic, political and technological cooperation.
A continuation of Lula’s leadership gives both governments an opportunity to build on existing discussions rather than start again with a new Brazilian administration.
Continuity can help businesses plan investments, maintain partnerships and explore long-term commercial opportunities. However, actual progress will depend on government policies, negotiations and the willingness of companies to invest.
2. Stronger cooperation in the Global South
India and Brazil frequently advocate a greater role for developing countries in international decision-making.
Both countries have called for reforms to global institutions, including the United Nations Security Council, to better reflect contemporary economic and political realities.
Their cooperation could help them coordinate positions on development finance, trade, technology access, climate policy and international governance.
3. Opportunities to diversify trade
Brazil is an important supplier of agricultural commodities, minerals and energy products, while India exports pharmaceuticals, chemicals, engineering goods and other manufactured products.
A broader commercial relationship could help both countries diversify their markets and suppliers.
Yet diversification will require more than diplomatic goodwill. Businesses need predictable regulations, competitive prices, reliable logistics and access to each other’s markets.
India-Brazil Trade: From $15.21 Billion Towards $30 Billion
Trade is one of the most tangible parts of the India-Brazil relationship.
According to figures cited by India’s Ministry of External Affairs in recent reporting, bilateral trade rose by more than 25% in 2025 to approximately $15.21 billion, compared with $12.20 billion in 2024.
Trade during the first six months of 2026 was reported at approximately $8.77 billion, representing growth of nearly 37% compared with the corresponding period in 2025.
The reported 2025 trade figures included:
| Trade indicator | Reported value |
|---|---|
| Total bilateral trade | $15.21 billion |
| Indian exports to Brazil | $8.35 billion |
| Indian imports from Brazil | $6.86 billion |
| India’s trade balance | $1.49 billion surplus |
| Trade target discussed for 2030 | $30 billion |
These figures show the scale of the existing relationship and the ambition to expand it further. The $30 billion figure is a target, not a guaranteed outcome.
What India exports to Brazil
India’s exports to Brazil include petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, agrochemicals, engineering goods, textiles and motorcycle parts.
Pharmaceuticals are particularly relevant because India has a large generic medicine industry and experience supplying international markets.
Greater market access could create opportunities for Indian pharmaceutical and chemical companies. However, businesses would still need to meet Brazilian regulatory requirements and compete with local and international suppliers.
Engineering products, industrial equipment and manufactured goods could also contribute to trade growth if demand and commercial conditions support expansion.
What Brazil exports to India
Brazil supplies India with commodities such as crude oil, sugar, soybean oil, cotton and iron ore, among other products.
These exports support India’s energy, food, agricultural and industrial requirements.
Brazil’s agricultural sector is also a potential source of expertise and cooperation in areas such as farming technology, food processing and agricultural productivity.
A stronger relationship could help both countries explore additional products and services rather than relying heavily on established commodity flows.
Can India and Brazil Reach $30 Billion in Trade by 2030?
The target is ambitious, but the two countries have several areas in which they could seek further growth.
To move towards $30 billion, India and Brazil would need to increase trade in existing products while identifying new commercial opportunities.
Potential steps include:
- Improving market access for pharmaceuticals, chemicals and manufactured goods.
- Expanding cooperation in energy, mining and critical minerals.
- Encouraging investment by companies from both countries.
- Strengthening logistics and supply-chain connections.
- Exploring opportunities in technology, aerospace and industrial manufacturing.
- Addressing regulatory barriers that make it harder for businesses to enter each other’s markets.
The challenge is that trade growth depends on several variables, including global commodity prices, currency movements, domestic demand and international economic conditions.
Political relations can support business confidence, but they cannot determine commercial outcomes on their own. Progress towards the target will need to be measured through actual trade data and completed agreements.
BRICS: Why Lula’s Victory Matters for India’s Strategy
BRICS is a grouping of emerging and developing economies that cooperate on economic, financial, political and development issues.
India and Brazil are founding members of the original BRIC grouping, alongside Russia and China. South Africa joined in 2011, and the group subsequently expanded to include additional members.
For India, BRICS offers a platform to discuss issues such as trade, development finance, global governance and the representation of emerging economies.
Lula has consistently supported a greater international role for the Global South and has described BRICS as an important platform for developing countries.
His re-election could provide continuity in Brazil’s participation in the grouping and create opportunities for closer coordination with India.
Reforming global institutions
India and Brazil both support changes to international institutions, including reform of the United Nations Security Council.
India has sought a permanent seat on the Council, arguing that the current structure does not adequately reflect the world’s contemporary political and economic realities.
Brazil has also supported changes intended to increase representation for major developing countries.
Working together could help the two countries coordinate diplomatic positions and advocate reforms. However, any changes to the Security Council would require broad international agreement and are not guaranteed by closer bilateral relations.
Does BRICS have a common trade policy?
No. BRICS is not a customs union or a single market like the European Union.
Members maintain their own tariffs, regulations, currencies and trade agreements. Cooperation within BRICS can support dialogue and joint initiatives, but individual members must still negotiate and implement many commercial arrangements.
This distinction matters for India-Brazil trade. Stronger cooperation within BRICS could create political momentum, but businesses would still need practical agreements and favourable market conditions to increase exports and investment.
Could India and Brazil Trade Without Relying Entirely on the US Dollar?
Another area of discussion is the possibility of using national currencies for some bilateral trade.
Lula has previously said India and Brazil could explore trade settlements using their own currencies rather than relying exclusively on the US dollar.
The idea is part of a wider discussion among some emerging economies about payment options, financial cooperation and reducing exposure to certain external financial risks.
However, using the Indian rupee and Brazilian real for bilateral transactions would require practical arrangements between banks, importers, exporters and financial institutions.
Key considerations include:
- Exchange-rate risk: Businesses need to manage fluctuations between the rupee and the real.
- Payment infrastructure: Banks need reliable systems to process and settle transactions.
- Trade imbalances: A difference between the value of exports and imports can complicate currency settlement.
- Business demand: Companies must find the arrangement commercially useful compared with existing payment methods.
National-currency settlement is therefore an option for further discussion, not evidence that India and Brazil have already replaced dollar-based trade.
Critical Minerals, Energy and Technology: New Areas of Cooperation
Beyond traditional trade, India and Brazil have opportunities to expand cooperation in strategically important industries.
During Lula’s February 2026 visit to India, the two countries discussed several areas of cooperation, including critical minerals, energy, defence, agriculture and technology.
They also signed agreements intended to strengthen cooperation across sectors.
Critical minerals
Critical minerals are important for industries such as electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy, electronics and advanced manufacturing.
Brazil has significant mineral resources, while India is seeking reliable supplies of materials needed for industrial development and new technologies.
Cooperation in mineral exploration, processing, investment and industrial infrastructure could help both countries develop their commercial relationship.
However, the results will depend on the development of projects, financing, environmental requirements and the terms of future agreements.
Energy and agriculture
Energy remains an important part of bilateral trade, with Brazil supplying India with crude oil and other commodities.
Agricultural trade is another established area. Brazil exports products including sugar and soybean oil to India, while the two countries have opportunities to share agricultural knowledge and explore food-processing cooperation.
These sectors could contribute to greater trade, although global prices, domestic policies and market demand will influence the outcome.
Technology and manufacturing
India and Brazil have also identified technology, digital cooperation and industrial development as areas for closer engagement.
Potential opportunities include aerospace, engineering, digital services and manufacturing partnerships.
Lula’s government has expressed interest in expanding industrial cooperation with India, while Indian companies may see Brazil as a route to a larger Latin American market.
Any new manufacturing investment will require commercial assessment, regulatory approvals and long-term business commitments.
What Lula’s Victory Means for the Global South
The term Global South generally refers to developing and emerging economies, particularly in Asia, Africa, Latin America and other regions.
It is not a formal organisation with a single foreign policy. Countries described as part of the Global South have different economic interests, political systems and relationships with major powers.
India and Brazil nevertheless share several priorities, including development finance, access to technology, reform of international institutions and a greater voice for developing countries in global decision-making.
Lula’s re-election provides an opportunity to continue cooperation on these issues.
Greater representation in global decision-making
India and Brazil have argued that global institutions should better reflect the distribution of economic activity and population in the modern world.
Closer coordination could strengthen their efforts to advocate reforms in international institutions. The outcome will depend on negotiations with other countries and the ability to build broader support.
Cooperation on development
Both countries face development challenges and have experience in areas such as agriculture, public health, digital services and industrial growth.
Exchanging expertise and developing joint initiatives could support their domestic priorities while creating opportunities for businesses and research institutions.
A more diversified international partnership
India and Brazil maintain relationships with a wide range of countries, including major economic powers.
Their cooperation does not necessarily require them to align on every geopolitical question. Both governments can pursue shared interests while retaining independent foreign policies.
The opportunity lies in identifying issues where their interests overlap and building practical cooperation around them.
What Challenges Could Slow India-Brazil Relations?
Despite the potential for stronger cooperation, several challenges could limit progress.
Trade barriers and regulations
Companies seeking to enter a new market must comply with local standards, licensing requirements, tariffs and other rules. These barriers can raise costs and slow the expansion of trade.
Distance and logistics
India and Brazil are geographically distant. Shipping costs, transport times and supply-chain complexity can affect the competitiveness of goods traded between them.
Different economic priorities
Even when governments share diplomatic goals, businesses and domestic industries may have different priorities. Negotiations can take time, especially when market access affects sensitive sectors.
Currency and financial risks
Currency fluctuations can influence import costs, export earnings and investment decisions. Any move towards wider national-currency settlement would need to address these risks.
International political pressures
Both countries maintain diverse global partnerships and face changing international conditions. Their cooperation within BRICS does not eliminate differences in their interests or relationships with other major powers.
These challenges mean that Lula’s victory should be seen as an opportunity to continue and expand cooperation, rather than a guarantee of rapid economic change.
What Should India Watch During Lula’s New Term?
For India, the most useful indicators will be concrete developments rather than diplomatic statements alone.
Important areas to watch include:
- Bilateral trade figures: Whether trade continues to grow towards the $30 billion target.
- Market-access agreements: Whether businesses gain easier access to the Indian and Brazilian markets.
- Critical-mineral projects: Whether announced cooperation results in investments, exploration or supply agreements.
- Technology and manufacturing: Whether companies establish new partnerships or production facilities.
- BRICS coordination: Whether India and Brazil work together on specific proposals concerning finance and global governance.
- Currency settlement: Whether banks and businesses develop practical mechanisms for using national currencies in selected transactions.
These developments will provide a clearer picture of whether the diplomatic relationship is producing measurable economic results.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What does Lula’s victory mean for India?
Lula’s re-election provides continuity in India-Brazil relations and an opportunity to expand cooperation in trade, energy, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, technology and BRICS. The actual impact will depend on future agreements and their implementation.
2. How much is India-Brazil bilateral trade worth?
Bilateral trade was reported at approximately $15.21 billion in 2025. The two countries have discussed increasing trade to $30 billion by 2030.
3. How could Lula’s victory affect BRICS?
It offers continuity in Brazil’s participation in BRICS and creates opportunities for India and Brazil to coordinate on trade, development and international governance. It does not mean that the members will agree on every issue.
4. What is the Global South?
The Global South is a broad term used for developing and emerging economies across regions including Asia, Africa and Latin America. It is not a single political organisation.
5. Can India and Brazil trade using their own currencies?
Both countries have discussed the possibility of national-currency settlement. Its practical use would depend on banking arrangements, exchange-rate risks, payment infrastructure and business demand.
6. What does Brazil export to India?
Brazil exports products including crude oil, sugar, soybean oil, cotton and iron ore, among other commodities.
7. What does India export to Brazil?
India’s exports include petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, agrochemicals, engineering goods, textiles and motorcycle parts.
8. Will Lula’s victory guarantee stronger trade relations?
No. The election result creates an opportunity for continued cooperation, but trade growth depends on market conditions, regulatory arrangements, investment and the implementation of agreements.
Conclusion
Lula’s victory in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential runoff creates an opportunity for India to deepen its relationship with Latin America’s largest economy.
The partnership already covers trade, energy, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, technology and critical minerals. Both countries also share interests in BRICS cooperation and giving developing economies a stronger voice in international institutions.
With bilateral trade reported at $15.21 billion in 2025 and a target of $30 billion by 2030, there is room to expand commercial ties. However, reaching that goal will require practical progress on market access, investment and business cooperation.
For India, the next phase of the relationship will be measured not only by diplomatic statements but also by completed projects, stronger trade flows and tangible results. Lula’s new term offers an opportunity to build on existing ties, while the final outcome will depend on decisions taken by both governments and the private sector.
